Hillary Clinton's Future

Last night, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton met to discuss how their two campaigns become one. The boundaries of that discussion aren't clear to those of us outside the room, but NPR has a nice rundown of where Hillary can go from here. historian Doris Kearns Goodwin lays out options.

Hillary might establish herself as a leader in the Senate, but while Ted Kennedy returned from his 1980 campaign to a role that included committee chairmanships and a feeling that this was where he belonged, Hillary may find the Senate less satisfying.

If Hillary goes back there, she may find that the math is going to trip her up... she is something like 36th senator out of 49.  It's many years, maybe eight years away from her becoming a committee chairman.  And I think it will be hard to be back among the senators... the majority of whom went for Obama rather than her.

Ted Kennedy had such an early start in the Senate that he was already a leader there before he made his run, and came back to a role as powerful as any in the legislature.  Sen. Clinton doesn't have that option.

If the Senate looks unsatisfying, a turn as governor of New York might better fit her needs.

If she were to have a chance to run for governor of New York, it would also be a great springboard for the presidency.  It's an executive power.  It would be exciting for her.  I think she could probably do a very good job.

But of course, there's one big problem with that option.

If [David Patterson] would decide to run again, it would be hard for her to contest a fellow Democrat who has been a supporter, and who is an African-American. ... that would be a tough thing for her to do.

Of course, there's still one big option on the table.

I have no doubt that for her, becoming Vice President is the absolute best choice for her.  Think about how powerful the vice-presidency is today compared to the old days.  

But there is one thing that's made very clear, no matter which way Sen. Clinton goes from here, her success will be judged in how well she supports Sen. Obama.

In any case, the consternation over Clinton's Tuesday speech "will all go away on Saturday," according to Susan Estrich, manager of Michael Dukakis' 1988 presidential campaign and author of The Case for Hillary Clinton.

"There's really no choice for her — if she wants a future at all in the Democratic Party — but to do the right thing, which she's going to do," Estrich says.

...

how Democrats will ultimately judge her is not a matter of what she says in her next speech, says [Democratic campaign strategist Bill] Carrick, but "the totality of how she behaves between now and November. If she's presumed to be ... working hard for the ticket," he says, "everybody's going to forget about this stuff."

If the measure of her future in the party is how quickly and fully she supports Obama, the possibility of her becoming vice-president may relay on something else: she can't appear to be putting any pressure on Barack Obama in seeking the role.  

"The vice presidency is not something that's campaigned for," [Carrick] says. "It usually backfires on someone who overtly campaigns" for the job.

If she wants a spot on the ticket, what Hillary has to demonstrate now is her strong support for Obama, and continue that support whether or not her name gets added to the second slot.